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  • Writer's pictureSieracki Milosz

Canadian Dollar Turns Bearish: Impact on USD/CAD Exchange Rate | Market Analysis

Canadian dollar coin on forex with green market charts

In the world of financial markets, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for investors and traders alike. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) has recently faced headwinds as broader market sentiment takes a bearish turn. In this article, we delve into the factors contributing to the CAD's decline and explore what lies ahead on the horizon.

Canada Manufacturing PMI: A Signal of Trouble

Canada Manufacturing PMI has been a closely monitored economic indicator, providing insights into the health of Canada's manufacturing sector. Unfortunately, the latest figures paint a gloomy picture. On a recent Monday, the PMI declined to 47.5, signaling a contraction in the sector.

This downturn in manufacturing activity has had a direct impact on the Canadian Dollar, causing it to depreciate by 0.70% against the US Dollar (USD) in Monday's trading session. It's important to note that the CAD is not isolated in this situation; it's part of broader market dynamics.

Broader Market Risk Appetite: The USD Rises

Market sentiment often sways currencies, and this time is no different. As broader market risk appetite turns south, jittery investors are flocking to the safe haven of the US Dollar (USD). This influx of capital into the USD has contributed to the CAD's depreciation.

The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently hovering around 1.3680, a level influenced by the shifting tides of risk sentiment. This recent movement highlights the importance of keeping an eye on broader market trends when assessing currency performance


Canadian Manufacturing PMI's Impact on CAD

The decline in the Canadian Manufacturing PMI from 48 to 47.5 on that fateful Monday further eroded support for the Canadian Dollar. This trend has had the opposite effect on the USD, strengthening its position against the CAD.

Traders and investors are now closely watching the economic calendar, with Thursday's Ivey PMI for September being a pivotal event. Forecasts suggest a drop from 53.5 to 50.8, potentially adding more pressure to the CAD.

Crude Oil and the CAD Connection

The Canadian Dollar has a unique relationship with Crude Oil prices, as Canada is a significant oil exporter. However, recent declines in Crude Oil prices have acted as a headwind for the CAD. As oil prices decrease, the CAD tends to lose support.

The oil-dependent CAD is struggling to find its footing in the markets, with Canadian PMIs continuing to worsen. These developments have raised concerns about a potential slowdown in the Canadian domestic economy, further weighing on the currency.

Looking Ahead: Market Flows and US Data

As we look ahead, market flows and US economic data will play a crucial role in determining the CAD's trajectory for the rest of the week. Currently, the economic calendar for CAD traders offers little of note until Thursday's Ivey PMI.

However, the spotlight will undoubtedly shift to US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday. This event is expected to overshadow Canadian labor data and could lead to further volatility in the USD/CAD exchange rate.

The Influence of US Treasury Yields

It's worth noting that US Treasury yields have been a guiding force for DXY flows, affecting the broader US Dollar. Currency traders are keeping a close watch on bond markets to gauge potential shifts in the US Dollar's direction.

Additionally, Wednesday's US ISM PMI figures will be of great interest to USD/CAD traders. These data points can provide valuable insights into the economic health of both the United States and its neighbor to the north, Canada.

Technical Analysis: USD/CAD Seeking 1.3700

From a technical standpoint, the USD/CAD pair has experienced a noteworthy rally. On a recent Monday, it reached 1.3670, marking a significant climb from the day's low near 1.3420. This upward momentum has been ongoing since Friday, when the pair bottomed out.

Over the course of just two trading days, the USD/CAD has surged by over 1.8%, showcasing its resilience and the extent of its rebound from bearish momentum.

The key moment came when September's swing low near the 1.3400 level saw technical support coming into play, sparking a reversal from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) positioned around 1.3450. This upward movement was further fueled by the broader market rebound of the US Dollar.

Currently, the USD/CAD pair is nearing September's peak of 1.3700. USD bulls are eager to gather enough momentum for a decisive break above this level, while CAD supporters are looking for ways to push the pair back toward the 34-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), situated just north of 1.3500.

CAD USD on BlackBull Market 02-10-2023


The Canadian Dollar's recent bearish turn, influenced by factors such as declining manufacturing activity, a risk-off market environment, and shifts in oil prices, has caused it to lose ground against the US Dollar.

Market flows, US economic data, and technical analysis all suggest that the USD/CAD exchange rate is poised for further movements. While it's impossible to predict with certainty, staying informed about these developments is vital for traders and investors navigating the ever-changing world of foreign exchange.

As always, prudent risk management and a deep understanding of market dynamics are essential when trading currencies. The financial landscape is constantly evolving, and those who adapt and stay ahead of the curve are most likely to succeed.

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