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  • Writer's pictureSieracki Milosz

Financial Markets Update: Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Data - What You Need to Know 18 October

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In the fast-paced world of financial markets, every day brings new developments that impact investors and traders alike. This mid-week has been no exception, as we witness a mixed bag of events shaping the landscape. Investors are carefully assessing the latest macroeconomic data releases and headlines surrounding the Israel-Hamas conflict. In this article, we will delve into the key happenings in the financial world, which include data releases, geopolitical tensions, and market reactions.

Eurostat's HICP Revisions

Wednesday brings forth an important event for those monitoring the Eurozone economy. Eurostat is set to release revisions to the September Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) figures. These figures are closely watched by analysts and investors to gauge inflation trends in the Eurozone. Any significant revisions could have implications for the Euro's value in the currency markets.

US Housing Data

In the second half of the day, Building Permits and Housing Starts data will be featured in the US economic docket. These figures are vital indicators of the health of the US housing market. Strong numbers could suggest a robust real estate sector, which often bodes well for the broader economy.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book

Finally, the Federal Reserve will publish its Beige Book, offering insights into the state of the US economy. This report summarizes economic conditions from various districts, helping investors and policymakers gauge the nation's economic health.

China's Impressive GDP Growth

During the Asian trading hours, data from China revealed that the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 4.9% in the third quarter. This reading followed the 6.2% growth recorded in the second quarter and beat market expectations for an expansion of 4.4%. Other data from China showed that Retail Sales increased by 5.5% on a yearly basis while Industrial Production expanded by 4.5%. Both of these figures exceeded analysts' estimates.

The positive economic data from China had a ripple effect in the currency markets, with the AUD/USD and NZD/USD pairs both gaining traction in the Asian session, rising 0.4% on the day.

Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East

Geopolitical events can significantly influence financial markets, and the Israel-Hamas conflict is no exception. US President Joe Biden is expected to arrive in Israel for a meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. However, tensions escalated as news of a strike on al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza emerged, leading to Jordan's cancellation of a summit with US President Biden and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Palestinian authorities claimed that at least 500 people died after an Israeli air raid on the hospital.

In response to these claims, Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus of the Israeli Defense Forces denied the allegations, stating that it was a failed rocket launch by the Islamic Jihad and that Israel does not intentionally strike sensitive facilities.

US Stock Index Futures and Treasury Bonds

US stock index futures traded flat following these developments, while the 10-year US Treasury bond yield held steady above 4.8% after Tuesday's rally. The US Dollar Index fluctuated in a tight channel slightly above 106.00.

UK Inflation Data

Inflation in the UK, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), held steady at 6.7% on a yearly basis in September, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 6.1% in the same period, compared to the 6.2% increase recorded in August. The GBP/USD currency pair's reaction to these figures was largely muted, with the pair trading modestly higher on the day at around 1.2200.

Currency Markets

The EUR/USD currency pair registered small gains on Tuesday and continued to edge higher toward 1.0600 early Wednesday. USD/JPY closed in positive territory slightly above 149.50 on Tuesday but failed to gather momentum in the Asian session on Wednesday.

Gold Shines Amidst Tensions

Gold benefited from upbeat Chinese data and escalating geopolitical tensions mid-week. XAU/USD was last seen trading at its highest level since September 20, at around $1,940.

In conclusion, financial markets remain dynamic and responsive to various events, including economic data releases and geopolitical tensions. Investors and traders must stay vigilant and informed to make well-informed decisions.

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