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  • Writer's pictureSieracki Milosz

Forex Today: EUR and USD Market Analysis | Q3's Last Trading Day Insights

In the fast-paced world of global finance, staying ahead of the curve is imperative. As we approach the final trading day of the third quarter, all eyes are on the Forex market, particularly the dynamics between the Euro (EUR) and the United States Dollar (USD). In this comprehensive analysis, we delve into the critical factors that will shape today's trading, from the performance of the USD to the inflation data emanating from both sides of the Atlantic.

US Dollar Price This Week

The USD has had a rollercoaster week, grappling with its major counterparts. After a commendable four-day winning streak, the USD Index (DXY) faced a sudden shift in sentiment during the American trading session on Thursday. As the risk mood improved, the USD's allure waned, leading to a stagnation in the European morning, with DXY hovering near 106.00.

However, the real headline-stealer was the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield. After reaching a multi-year high near 4.7%, it ultimately closed in negative territory, below the 4.6% mark. These fluctuations in bond yields often reverberate throughout the financial markets, impacting investor sentiment and currency valuations.

Wall Street's Resilience Amidst Political Uncertainty

While political debates continue in Washington, Wall Street remains surprisingly robust. Despite the ongoing disagreements between Democrats and Republicans regarding the budget and the looming specter of a government shutdown, the main indexes on Wall Street managed to register gains.

Looking ahead to Friday, US stock index futures appear to be trading flat for the day. A significant event on the economic calendar is the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which happens to be the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. For August, the PCE Price Index is projected to rise by 3.5%, up from July's 3.3%. Additionally, the Core PCE Price Index, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, is expected to increase by 3.9%, down from the 4.2% growth recorded in July. These figures will be instrumental in shaping the Fed's future monetary policy decisions.

Euro (EUR) Shows Signs of Recovery

Across the Atlantic, the EUR has exhibited a notable resurgence. The EUR/USD pair gained momentum on Thursday and continued its upward trajectory towards the 1.0600 level on Friday. A pivotal factor to watch is the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation data for the Euro area. Projections indicate a softening in inflation to 4.5% in September, down from the previous month's 5.2%.

GBP/USD and the UK's Economic Pulse

In the case of the GBP/USD pair, Thursday witnessed a significant upward movement of more than 50 pips. As we step into Friday, the pair has surged above the 1.2200 mark. Adding to the equation, the UK's Office for National Statistics has reported that the real GDP expanded by 0.2% on a quarterly basis in the second quarter, aligning with market expectations and the initial estimate.

USD/JPY: Japan's Vigilance and Consumer Price Index

Conversely, the USD/JPY pair experienced a reversal in fortunes on Thursday, closing in negative territory after surpassing the 149.50 level. Early Friday, the pair remains relatively subdued, hovering just above 149.00. Notably, Japanese Finance Minister Shun'ichi Suzuki emphasized that they are closely monitoring foreign exchange market movements, asserting their readiness to intervene if excessive volatility ensues. In tandem, Japan's data revealed that the Tokyo Consumer Price Index rose by 2.8% on a yearly basis in September.

Canadian GDP Figures Awaited

Turning our attention northward, Statistics Canada is poised to release the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for July later in the day. In anticipation of this data release, the USD/CAD pair maintains a position in negative territory, slightly below 1.3500. Analysts are forecasting a monthly growth rate of 0.1%, following a 0.2% contraction in June. These figures will shed light on the Canadian economy's health and its potential implications for the currency markets.

Gold's Volatility Amidst Shifting Yields

Gold, often regarded as a safe-haven asset, witnessed a sharp decline for the fourth consecutive day on Thursday. It descended to its lowest level since early March, dipping below the $1,860 threshold. However, with US Treasury bond yields commencing their descent, XAU/USD managed to stage a rebound, currently trading near $1,870.


The Forex landscape is poised for an eventful day as traders and investors closely monitor the developments. The interplay between the USD and its counterparts, coupled with key economic indicators and geopolitical events, will shape the trading sentiment on this last day of the third quarter.

Stay tuned for real-time updates and expert insights on the Forex market as it navigates through these intricate dynamics.

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