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  • Writer's pictureSieracki Milosz

Natural Gas Trends: Stockpile Data Points to Winter Demand Uncertainty

Updated: Aug 28, 2023

Understanding the Impact of Stockpile Data on Natural Gas Prices


Natural Gas Usd Dollars Forex

In the ever-shifting landscape of energy markets, Natural Gas has recently hit a new weekly low, sparking concerns over the upcoming winter demand. Concurrently, the US Dollar has taken a step back, influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish tone. While the technical outlook suggests a longer-term ascending trend channel, the market is experiencing fluctuations that warrant close attention. Let's delve into the details to gain a comprehensive understanding of these developments.


A Dip in Natural Gas Prices


Natural Gas prices are facing downward pressure, with stockpile data raising questions about winter demand. The current price hovers around $2.688 per MMBtu, reflecting a touch of rebound from Friday's drop but not enough to prevent a weekly loss. Stockpiles in Germany have crossed the 90% mark, and US stockpiles are also on the rise. These figures hint at a potential decrease in demand for the upcoming fall, compared to previous years.


US Dollar's Retreat and Market Sentiment


The US Dollar experienced a setback as surprise tariffs were imposed on tin metal imports from China, Germany, and Canada. Despite this, the Greenback remains strong for the week, consolidating its monthly high. The currency's strength impacts futures markets, capping the current price due to its higher value.


Natural Gas Market Dynamics


European gas storage has exceeded projected targets, reaching above 90% stockpile even before October. As the summer season concludes, energy commodity demand is tapering off, aligned with the fading flying demand. Notably, the weekly US gas stockpile numbers showed a build from 29B to 35B, surpassing the expected 34B. Pipeline gas cuts from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan might provide a boost to LNG demand.


Factors Influencing Gas Prices


Weather projections suggest an increased possibility of a cold winter in Europe, which could maintain gas price levels despite near-full storages. China's LNG import growth is projected to slow down during the winter months, potentially leading to an oversupply by 2024 due to the numerous long-term deals secured in recent years. Additionally, Tropical Storm Hilary is set to make landfall on the Baja California peninsula, adding an element of uncertainty to the market.


The Upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium


All eyes are on the upcoming annual Jackson Hole Symposium, a pivotal event where the US Federal Reserve signals changes in monetary policy. This event could significantly impact market sentiment and direction moving forward.


Technical Analysis: Natural Gas' Path Ahead


The recent volatility in Natural Gas prices has put pressure on the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $2.647. The market's 8% decline highlights the delicate balance between supply and demand, with rising gas stockpiles in the US, EU, and China indicating potential demand weakening in the winter. The Australian strikes could further contribute to downside pressure if they lead to a complete halt in supply to external trade partners.


Looking ahead, the $3 mark remains a crucial level to monitor, given the prevailing ascending trend channel since April. A recovery in Natural Gas prices would require a close above $2.935, confirming a resurgence in demand. Upside potential includes targets at $3 and $3.065, representing significant levels of interest.


Conversely, the trend channel's lower boundary is supported by the 55-day SMA at $2.638. Should further downward pressure ensue, attention should shift to $2.578, the lower trendline of the channel.


NATURALGAS/USD BlackBull Markets Trading View 18-08-2023

Summary


The Natural Gas market is at a crossroads, grappling with uncertainties surrounding winter demand amidst shifting geopolitical and economic dynamics. While technical indicators suggest a possible rebound, the impact of supply and demand imbalances, weather patterns, and global events cannot be ignored. As stakeholders prepare for the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, they brace for potential market-shaping announcements that could steer the course of Natural Gas prices in the months to come.


FAQs

  1. Why has Natural Gas hit a new weekly low? Natural Gas prices have dropped due to stockpile data hinting at potential weaker demand during the upcoming winter.

  2. What impact does the US Dollar's retreat have on Natural Gas prices? The US Dollar's retreat exerts pressure on Natural Gas prices, as the stronger dollar caps the market's upward potential.

  3. How does the European gas storage situation affect the market? European gas storage surpassing projected targets indicates a surplus, potentially impacting Natural Gas prices.

  4. What role does the Jackson Hole Symposium play in market dynamics? The annual Jackson Hole Symposium serves as a platform for the US Federal Reserve to communicate changes in monetary policy, influencing market sentiment.

  5. What technical levels should traders watch for in Natural Gas prices? Traders should monitor the $3 level for potential recovery and the $2.579 level for downside support in Natural Gas prices.


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