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  • Writer's pictureSieracki Milosz

New Zealand's Economic Outlook: Growth and Inflation Projections Unveiled

As anticipation mounts ahead of New Zealand's official Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data release this week, the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) has unveiled its Consensus Forecasts, shedding light on the country's expected growth and inflation figures. Let's dive into the key takeaways.

Slower GDP Growth on the Horizon

The forecast for annual average GDP growth paints a cautious picture. It's projected to decelerate to a mere 0.4 percent in the year leading up to March 2024. However, there's a glimmer of hope as the economy is expected to stage a recovery, with GDP growth rebounding to 1.1 percent in 2025.

The Impact of Rising Interest Rates

One factor contributing to this measured growth is the impact of higher interest rates. The Reserve Bank's Official Cash Rate (OCR) hikes are beginning to influence the broader economy, dampening demand to some extent. It's a balancing act as the central bank aims to manage inflation and economic stability.

Export Challenges and China's Influence

New Zealand's export sector faces headwinds, primarily stemming from the uncertain growth outlook in China, a significant trading partner. Weaker demand for New Zealand's exports poses a downside risk to the country's economic trajectory, highlighting the importance of international economic relationships.

Migration's Silver Lining

Amidst these challenges, a silver lining emerges from the strong recovery in net migration. This factor is expected to bolster domestic demand in the years ahead. It showcases the resilience of the New Zealand economy in adapting to changing circumstances.

Inflation Expectations

Turning our attention to inflation, the outlook for the year ending March 2024 has been adjusted upwards. Annual CPI inflation is predicted to reach 4.3 percent before gradually receding to 2.4 percent in 2025. This trajectory reflects the delicate balance between managing inflation and supporting economic growth.

Market Response

The market reaction to these projections has been noticeable. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) has experienced some turbulence, with investors closely monitoring the country's economic outlook. As of the latest update, NZD/USD is showing some resilience, edging up by 0.15% to trade at 0.5908, albeit down from intraday highs of 0.5919.

usd ndz forex market charts 18-09-2023

These forecasts underscore the complex interplay of domestic and international factors shaping New Zealand's economic landscape. As the nation navigates through these challenges, vigilance and adaptability remain key to maintaining economic stability and growth. Stay tuned for the official GDP data release, which promises further insights into New Zealand's economic journey.

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