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  • Writer's pictureSieracki Milosz

USD Strength and Global Trends: Market Insights - January 5 2024


Global Trends January 05 2024
Friday's Market Overview

Following a day of indecisive market action on Thursday, the US Dollar (USD) showcased resilience, gaining strength against major rivals early Friday. The unfolding events on the global economic stage, particularly Eurostat's imminent release of the December Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices for the Euro area, and the US economic docket featuring the December jobs report, Nonfarm Payrolls, wage inflation figures, and ISM Services PMI, contribute to the intricate narrative shaping market trends.


USD's Vigor: Nonfarm Payrolls Forecast

The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) forecast indicates an anticipated growth below 200,000 in December for the third consecutive month. Thursday's private sector employment data revealed a notable rise of 164,000 jobs, surpassing the market expectation of 115,000. Additionally, the Department of Labor reported a decline in first-time applications for unemployment benefits, with 202,000 applications in the week ending December 30. These developments propelled the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield above 4%, leading the USD Index to recover and close the day virtually unchanged. Early Friday, the 10-year yield remains steady above 4%, and the USD Index clings to modest gains above 102.50.


Eurozone's Economic Landscape

EUR/USD experienced marginal gains on Thursday but faced challenges in sustaining momentum during Asian trading on Friday. Trading below 1.0950, the pair reflects a cautious market sentiment. Germany's Retail Sales data, reporting a 2.5% decline on a monthly basis in November, adds a layer of complexity. Moreover, the forecasted rise in annual HICP inflation in the Euro area to 3% from November's 2.4% poses potential implications for the EUR/USD pair.


GBP/USD Fluctuations

GBP/USD, which climbed above 1.2700 on Thursday, retraced its daily rally in the American session, closing below 1.2700. Early Friday, the pair retreats toward 1.2650, showcasing the dynamic nature of currency markets amid evolving economic data.


Japan's Economic Indicators

Japanese economic indicators reveal a positive shift as the Consumer Confidence Index improved to 37.2 in December from 36.1 in November. The Jibun Bank Services PMI for December, slightly below the flash estimate at 51.5, contributes to the overall positive outlook. USD/JPY, in response, extended its uptrend, surpassing 145.00 for the first time in three weeks on Friday.


Precious Metals' Performance

Gold faced a loss of traction after testing $2,050 on Thursday, retracing to the $2,040 area. With the 10-year yield maintaining its weekly gains, XAU/USD encounters challenges in staging a rebound early Friday. Meanwhile, Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to capitalize on intraday gains, retreating to the lower end of its daily range during the early part of the European session.


WTI Price Dynamics

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price exhibits an upward trend, hovering around $72.70 per barrel during the Asian session on Friday. However, concerns arise as WTI experienced a decline due to a surge in US gasoline and distillate inventories, raising questions about the stability of demand. The significant weekly increase in product stockpiles sparks worries about a potential downward trajectory in US demand.


In Conclusion

The dynamic interplay of economic indicators, employment data, and global trends underscores the complexity of the current market landscape. As investors navigate through these fluctuations, staying informed about key events and their potential impact on currencies, commodities, and equities becomes crucial for strategic decision-making.


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