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  • Writer's pictureSieracki Milosz

WTI Crude Oil Rebound: OPEC+ Cuts and Global Factors

WTI Crude Oil Global Factors Towers Rafinery Trucks

Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, in particular, is a key player in the global energy landscape. In this article, we will delve into the recent movements of WTI crude oil and the factors influencing its price.

A Notable Rebound

WTI crude oil has experienced a notable rebound, with prices climbing over 1.30% from their daily lows. This surge in value is no coincidence but rather a result of several key factors in the oil market.

OPEC+ Production Cut Commitments

One of the primary factors supporting the rebound in WTI crude oil prices is the commitment made by OPEC+ members, particularly Saudi Arabia and Russia, to maintain a significant production cut. These oil-producing giants have pledged to cut 1.2 million barrels per day until the end of the year. This decision, aimed at stabilizing the oil market, has undoubtedly played a role in boosting prices.

Global Manufacturing PMIs

While production cuts are bolstering prices, other factors are looming on the horizon. Global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data indicates the possibility of an economic slowdown. A slowdown in global economic activity could limit oil demand, thus affecting price growth.

WTI's Recovery and Saudi Arabia-Russia Collaboration

As of the mid-north American session, WTI crude oil has shown resilience by recovering more than 1.30% after bouncing from a daily low of $80.71. The commitment of Saudi Arabia and Russia to the 1.2 million barrel cut until the end of the year is providing substantial support for this recovery.

UBS Analysts' Insights

UBS analysts have suggested that the production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia may extend into the first quarter of 2024. This extension could be attributed to the seasonally weaker oil demand that typically occurs at the beginning of each year. This insight underscores the importance of monitoring these production cut commitments.

Global Economic Conditions

In addition to production cuts, global economic conditions play a crucial role in oil price dynamics. Recent releases of worldwide manufacturing PMIs indicate a slowdown in economic activity. This slowdown has the potential to cap oil prices as demand decreases.

Factors Influencing the Oil Market

It's essential to consider various factors that can influence the oil market, as they can have a profound impact on WTI crude oil prices. These factors include geopolitical tensions, global economic data, and trade dynamics.

Geopolitical Tensions

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, although currently confined to the Gaza Strip, pose a potential risk to WTI prices. The region's instability is a concern, and any escalation of conflicts in the Middle East could lead to higher oil prices. Oil traders need to keep a close eye on geopolitical developments in addition to the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Technical Analysis of WTI Prices

From a technical perspective, the recent retracement of WTI crude oil towards the $80.00 mark can be viewed as a pullback. This retracement occurred after a rapid rise in oil prices from around $77.64 to $94.99, just falling short of the $100.00 mark. To resume its upward trajectory, buyers must reclaim the 20-day moving average (DMA) at $84.69. This could pave the way for a challenge of the 50-DMA at $86.58 before aiming for the psychological level of $90.00. Conversely, a drop below $80.00 could lead to a challenge of the 200-DMA at $78.16.

In conclusion, the recent rebound in WTI crude oil prices is primarily attributed to the OPEC+ production cut commitments made by Saudi Arabia and Russia. While this has provided support, global economic conditions and geopolitical tensions present challenges that could impact oil demand and prices. Staying informed about these factors is crucial for anyone involved in the oil market.

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